Tour de France 2010

So the parcours for the 2010 TdF was unveiled today. Hopefully the route will make up for what was a relatively stale edition this year. Certainly the organisers have pulled out a few extra stops along the way this time around. This news gives its fans a taste of what to expect and a vague excuse to start the first round of predictions, gossip and lick-your-finger-and-stick-it-in-the-air guesswork, which I will shamelessly try to do here.

This Tour of France will start in Holland (obviously), Rotterdam to be precise. Interestingly, with the 2009 Vuelta a Espana having started on the Assen TT circuit and the 2010 Giro d'Italia due to kick off in Amsterdam, that makes three Grand Tours in succession starting in the Low Country. Weird.

An almost certainly flat, 8km prologue will favour the usual suspects; so expect Cancellara and Wiggins to be fighting it out, along with Contador (whose TT abilities have improved massively) and Armstrong if he gets back to his former ways (and providing his team get an invite). Also this may be one for the powerful sprinters to get involved in; this year's green jersey Thor Hushovd has already set his sights on the short dash for yellow. With the race crossing into Belgium in the following days, this may give Tom Boonen the incentive to try and win the famous garment to wear into his homeland. In a recent interview he claimed he wished to improve his TT abilites for a tilt at the 2010 Worlds; this opportunity may be an extra motivation.

As mentioned, from Rotterdam the race moves on to Belgium for three stages. If Cancellara, Hushovd or Boonen get themselves high up in the GC early on, expect them to make a bid for the yellow jersey, or to extend their lead on stage three, a 207km dash across Belgium featuring the return of cobblestone sectors to the route. This will suit the strong men who feature in races such as Paris-Roubaix and the Tour of Flanders, who may try and make a break for the line and avoid the mass sprint finish that usually punctuates the early days of the Tour. This may give the new British squad Team Sky and its troupe of Classics specialists (for instance Flecha) to grab some glory. It will also be fraught with danger for the GC guys, with not much to gain, but plenty to lose in crashes and punctures that come with the cobbles.

Otherwise, the opening week of flat stages will give plenty for Britain's sprint superstar, Mark Cavendish, to lay down his challenge for the green jersey, which he lost in 2009 to Thor Hushovd, despite winning 6 stages along the way. The number of stages designated 'plain' is down one this coming edition from 10 to 9, but that is still plenty for Cav to get his teeth into. He flags up 8 stages for possible wins, anyone want to bet for less than 5 or 6? However, it remains to be seen how effective his Columbia team's lead out train will be this year, and especially with the emergence of rivals Garmin in recent months with the likes of Tyler Farrar and Chris Sutton (although he might be off to Sky), Hushovd again likely to be challenging, perhaps Boonen, McEwen and Ciolek too. Another shout might be the young Norweigan Edvald Boasson Hagen, winner of four stages in the Tour of Britain, the Eneco Tour and Gent-Wevelgem this year, this talented rider also moves to Sky for next year and could be one to watch when the peloton roars under the red kite. I'll also choose this time to mention Gert Steegmans, the Belgian who pinched a win from his leader Boonen in their home country and won on the Champs Elysses in 2008, before going AWOL in 2009 after a disagreement with his team. Now he has found a happy home at RadioShack he might well be back in form next year.

Of course, the race is won and lost in the mountains, and for the 2010 edition the giant Col du Tourmalet will make a return for its centenary, not once but twice (making up for the fact that it was undoubtedly wasted in its 2009 appearance) - once either side of the second rest day. For the second encounter the summit will act as the stage finish and its prominence in the middle of the third week, especially since the riders will have a free day beforehand, may decide the Tour in a similar way to Alpe d'Huez did in 2008 when Carlos Sastre attacked at the base of the climb and won the stage and ultimately the Tour.

The mountain goats that may contest this epic dash up the Col will have to include defending champion Contador, Andy Schleck, world champion Cadel Evans (if he rides - rumours suggest he may be farmed out to contest one of the other three-week tours instead). From a British perspective we must also consider Bradley Wiggins in this elite group of GC contenders, following his sensational fourth place in 2009. What may hinder his progress up the rankings this time around is the fact that the route in this year past could not have been better suited to him - even he accepts this as fact. There is only the single individual TT (outside of the prologue) - and no TTT. If he remains at Garmin, this will be sorely missed - look at how much time he gained with it in 2009. However, should he make the much-speculated transfer to Sky, a team without TT pedigree, this may be a blessing. This is not to take away from his new-found climbing abilities - he was up there mixing it with the best of the best in that respect, but the TT has always been Bradley's speciality on the road and losing vital kilometres in the discipline will hinder his podium credentials.

Where Wiggins loses, so Andy Schleck (the 2009 runner-up) gains. He was the one rider who looked to match Contador on the mountains and may have ridden away from him on the Ventoux were he not looking after big brother Frank so much. As Contador's future looks uncertain at the moment after his Astana team seems to have been pulled from underneath him by Armstrong and the RadioShack boys, perhaps the super-strong Saxo Bank squad could put Schleck in the favourite's position for 2010? Certainly he will have a fighting chance against Contador, who is not invincible (look back to the Dauphine Libere for proof of that). Armstrong himself is a complete mystery - an incredible return to the sport saw him land a podium; will his team of loyal lieutenants like Leipheimer, Zubeldia and Popovych be enough to offset his advancing years and bag him another top three finish? I would hesitate to say yes, but if there's one man you don't want to write off...

Just to be different, I'm going to back Schleck the younger for the big W in 2010, but going back over the potential list of names contending in the sprints and in the mountains, combined with the adventurous and varied route, leaves me to conclude that this Tour de France could well be the most exciting in years. Doesn't it feel like the past few years of gradually weeding out the cheats, the new talent emerging alongside old contenders and surprise names is building to a head for next year? Furthermore, with cycling as a sport on the verge of really taking off in Britain, the emergence of Cavendish, Wiggins and Team Sky (even though they will be competing for column inches with the football World Cup) might send it into overdrive. And wouldn't that be something?