...In which I attempt to become the Derren Brown of sport. By that I don't mean completely waste a good hour of prime-time television, I mean I will try to guess the nominees for the 2009 BBC Sports Personality of the Year award. With most of the major sports events of the year out of the way, a number of potential candidates have come to the fore. To be honest, at least half of them pretty much pick themselves, but I'll take a stab at filling the rest of the places.
Jessica Ennis - Athletics
Sheffield's Jessica Ennis has everything. A 23 year-old World Champion in the heptathlon, allied to undeniable good looks, means she will be the poster girl for the forthcoming 2012 London Olympics. Her performance in the World Championships in Berlin was one of domination, using her two strongest events – the hurdles and high jump, in which she is also British number one – to set a frightening pace which no-one could even get close to. By no means the finished article, expect her to have the British heptathlon record by 2012, especially if she can sort out her day 2 events. The absent Hyleas Fountain may provide stiff competition in the years to come, as well as Kluft (if she ever returns, which is looking increasingly unlikely) and – let us not forget – Kelly Sotherton. Just in case she didn't already have everything going for her, this year's SPOTY is being broadcast from – you guessed it – Sheffield, meaning she will undoubtedly have centre stage on the night as well.
My Prediction: 1st
Phillips Idowu - Athletics
Finally, Phillips Idowu is a World Champion. Thank the Lord. Years of unfulfilled potential have finally been realised in a few seconds and 17.73 metres. That the winning mark he set put 5cm on his outdoor best dating back to the 2002 Commonwealth Games demonstrates that potential he always had. Of course, we musn't forget that prior to the Worlds, Phillips picked up the 2008 World Indoor title, Olympic silver, the 2007 European Indoors and 2006 Commonwealths, making him one of the most consistent performers on the big stage in recent years. Now a recognisable figure due to these performances over the years, one would have expected him to do well on the night, although fellow athlete Ennis will take many of his potential votes.
My prediction: 7th
Andy Murray - Tennis
Every year, Andy Murray takes another step forward in his development as a tennis player and as a figure in the web of British sport. And accordingly it seems, every year he picks up a SPOTY nomination. Having become the first player in four years to break the Federer-Nadal domination of world tennis by becoming the world number 2 (albeit temporarily) this year should be no exception. Winning five titles this year – including two Masters Series events - has established the Scot at the top of the men's game. He will look to add to that tally in the season ending indoor hard court events, at which he is probably the best player in the world. However he continues to polarise opinion on these shores, meaning unless he goes and wins a Slam, a top-three finish is unlikely.
My prediction: 5th
Jenson Button – Motorsport
SPOTY's love affair with Formula One drivers is set to continue this year, after Jenson Button's simply stunning season being set to land him the world title. It is frankly staggering to consider that he might not even have made the grid this season, with his Honda team pulling out in the winter and only an 11th hour buyout by the team's technical director Ross Brawn made this story possible. In fact this may even have had its own blessing, with the team shod of its works Honda engines and being able to secure a deal to run the leading Mercedes powerplants instead. It is worth noting that the apparent small-team success would not have been possible without Honda's millions and the team writing off 2008 completely to design the 2009 car to the radical new regulations. However, this should not in any way belittle the achievement of the team and its probable 2009 World Champion. The bookies' favourite, although Lewis Hamilton has had that honour and failed to take the top prize.
My Prediction: 2nd
Mark Cavendish - Cycling
Cavendish should be one of Britain's biggest sports stars. He has a palmares so big it even commands its own page on Wikipedia, distinct from his actual profile page. What it will show is over 20 professional victories in 2009, including the prestigious Milan-Sanremo classic and six Tour de France stages. In MSR and the final stage of the TdF in Paris, Cavendish has picked up two of the biggest wins a road sprinter could want. It is hard to gauge how much these have caught the attention of the public, and whether these will translate into votes. Also he will likely be up against Bradley Wiggins, with cycling fans voting en masse for one or the other. However, if the BBC give him the billing he deserves, expect him to poll well.
My Prediction: 3rd
Bradley Wiggins - Cycling
How is it possible that the six-time Olympic medallist (including three golds) is the nearly man of British sport? Overshadowed by Kelly Holmes in 2004 and fellow cyclist Chris Hoy in 2008, Wiggo battles for supremacy with Mark Cavendish for top British rider. His fourth place in the Tour de France is a massive achievement, especially considering his previous Grand Tour record, and the best performance by a Briton in the history of the race. The significance of this should not be understimated, although it will be hard to assess whether this ranks higher in the minds of the voters than Cavendish's stage wins. However, at the time of writing the World Time Trial Championships have not yet taken place. Should he win the rainbow stripes, the title of 'world champion' might be enough to push him above Cav in the voting.
My Prediction: 6th
Tom Daley - Diving
Daley's win in the World Aquatics Championships in the 10m platform diving was nothing short of remarkable for this teenager. Not only that, but as far as SPOTY voting is concerned the public like a good story. Daley, at just 14, provides just that. A potential dark horse, but I expect he will still struggle to garner votes in a strong year.
My Prediction: 8th
Stuart Broad - Cricket
As England have won back the Ashes, there has to be a cricketer in the shortlist, and apparent figurehead for the England squad Broad will probably be the main man for the vote. Perhaps captain Strauss would feel aggrieved if he was overlooked for nomination by Broad, but it is the latter player who dominated the headlines and the aftermath of victory. However, Broad - and indeed Strauss - suffer from not being the larger-than-life figure that 2005 SPOTY winner Andrew Flintoff was. Furthermore, having won the Ashes the last time the Aussies visited these shores, the achievement feels less special; certainly the lack of terrestrial coverage or even a victory parade on the scale of 2005 has pushed cricket from the consciousness of the public.
My Prediction: 4th
Wayne Rooney - Football
In a year of record-timing qualification for a World Cup, it only seems fitting that one England football player should make the shortlist. In truth, the team/coach awards seem the way forward for this England team, but group top scorer Wayne Rooney is a potential nominee.
My Prediction: 9th
Alistair Brownlee - Triathlon
Brownlee is one from the leftfield; he earns his place courtesy of his recent World Triathlon Championships series win. Getting in amongst the headlines late in the year is never a bad thing when it comes to SPOTY nominations, as his achievement should be fresh in the memory when the shortlists are being drawn up. However he would be unlikely to poll many votes on the night.
My Prediction: 10th
Other awards:
Team of the year: England cricket team
Coach of the year: Fabio Capello
Overseas sports personality: Usain Bolt
Young sports personality: Heather Watson
But enough of that, what do the professionals think?
Here are the current odds (20th September) on williamhill.com:
Jenson Button 5/4 Jessica Ennis 7/4 Andrew Flintoff 8/1 Andrew Strauss 8/1 Stuart Broad 20/1 Andy Murray 25/1 Phillips Idowu 25/1 David Haye 33/1 Tom Daley 33/1 Amir Khan 40/1 Mark Cavendish 40/1 Graeme Swann 50/1 Lewis Hamilton 66/1 Bradley Wiggins 66/1 Keri-Anne Payne 66/1
...and on ladbrokes.com:
J Button 5/4 J Ennis 7/4 A Flintoff 8/1 A Strauss 8/1 S Broad 16/1 A Murray 25/1 P Idowu 25/1 T Daley 33/1 A Khan 50/1 D Haye 50/1 L Hamilton 50/1 M Cavendish 50/1 R Giggs 66/1
Well I know sod-all about boxing, so I wouldn't be able to assess the likelihood of Haye and Khan in the reckoning. All the bookies have Button as a favourite; that is likely to be cemented if he goes on to win the world title, but his 2008 heartache to 2009 world success is matched by on the night home favourite Ennis. Unbelievably, the virtually anonymous and occasionally injured Flintoff is 8/1 third favourite; it would be astonishing if he even gets a nomination. Mark Cavendish is 7/1 on betfair for a top 3 finish, perhaps I should literally put my money where my mouth is (or at least, laptop keyboard is). How on earth Hamilton, Swann or Giggs are even on the list I shall never know.
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