Djokovic's early exit opens the door for Murray

Defending Indian Wells champion, the world #3, Novak Djokovic's defeat in the quarter finals to Andy Roddick will see him lose a sizeable chunk of points when the new rankings come out next week. His score of 1000 for the tournament last year will be replaced by a meagre 180 for his 2009 performance, dropping his overall tally to 8420.

This is the opportunity that world #4, Andy Murray, needed. Through to the final at Indian Wells, victory there will propel his score up to 8250, just 170 behind Djokovic. With both players only defending 1st round exits at the next tournament, the Masters 1000 event in Miami, then a straight race ensues for the #3 spot; providing both players make at least the quarter finals, then if Murray gets further in the tournament than his Serbian rival he will claim the position. Before the Australian Open, I had predicted Murray would be #3 after Miami; but his subsequent quarter-final exit in Melbourne seemed to put paid to that idea. Now though, he has a real chance to claim that new highest ranking - one higher than compatriots Tim Henman and Greg Rusedski managed.

Even if Murray loses in the final on Sunday, or underperforms in Miami, he looks favourite to claim that position in the long run. He failed to advance beyond the round of 16 in any of his 2008 clay court outings - the 'swing' of the season that follows on from here, leading up to the French Open in June. Djokovic, meanwhile, has semifinal appearances at Roland Garros and at two Masters events - Monte Carlo and Hamburg - on his 2008 scoresheet, as well as victory in the Rome Masters, meaning a hefty sum of points to defend in the coming months. This defence must come from a player whose 2009 win-loss record (before this week) reads 14-6 versus Murray's 15-1.

If Murray can improve his performances on clay - and I believe he can; he is a much changed player even from 12 months ago, and his noticably improved power and serve will help him here - then he can challenge that #3 position, and by the year's end, hope to put pressure on Federer for the #2 ranking. One feels only US Open victory would be good enough to make inroads into the top two, but the way Andy Murray has started 2009, that is not beyond him.